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Other companies have followed suit. Hempstone Ngare, a former radio reporter hired in 2017 to run social media for one of the company's competitors, recalls a period of particularly aggressive marketing: billboards set up across the country, "good-looking ladies" offering T-shirts for a tag-UPS, and spam text messages, Ngare private posts on Facebook, Instagram and Twitter, designed to attract followers who can later convert into customers. The opportunity was rife. A 2016 survey at Kenyatta University found that 78% of males and 57% of female students have attempted betting, with nearly half gambling at least once a week (and 80% reporting net losses). Subsequent surveys by GeoPoll consistently found that more than three-quarters of young people in Kenya and more than half in Uganda, Tanzania, Ghana, Nigeria and South Africa have indulged, mostly on their phones with the help of mobile money.
By 2018, Kenyans were spending $1.3 billion a year betting on the SportPesa platform.
As sports betting took hold, addiction followed. A 2020 study of Kenyan student bettors conducted by Ogashi diagnosed nearly seven in ten with gambling disorders. Nelson Boyer, who led the Kenyatta University survey when he was an undergraduate, was so upset that he founded a non-profit organization, Game Awareness Kenya Association, which seeks to reduce the harms of gambling. Bwire has advised students who have been forced to drop out of school after betting on forfeiting tuition, and workers who have been jailed for wasting employer money.
Usually not easy to get rid of
Some argue that Kenya should ban sports betting entirely. There is certainly a precedent: this practice is highly restricted in many parts of the world, including most of Asia and the Middle East. However, those who know the Kenyan sector well say that dramatic reforms are unlikely. For one thing, taxes derived from betting have become an important source of income for the cash-strapped government of Kenya. Many of the country's leading betting houses also have close financial ties to politicians or their partners; Some believe this may be part of the reason why a 2019 bill calling for a new regulator with stronger teeth did not gain traction in the Kenyan parliament. And the betting firms themselves have become important sources of employment: Najari, who has worked for many of them, says he'd rather go back to journalism, but he also has rent to pay, and parents come home to support them.
However, there are signs that the Kenyan authorities have had some success in curbing the excesses of the industry. New taxes on bets and winnings seem to have prompted some bookmakers to cut back. A law passed last December gives the central bank new powers to regulate digital lenders. Thanks to restrictions put in place by the Betting and Licensing Board (BCLB), gambling companies can no longer advertise on radio and television during daylight hours. But the industry is still moving forward. In July 2019, the board of directors refused to renew the licenses of 27 betting companies, including SportPesa, in a row over the payment of back taxes. Some have returned, and new companies have seen an opportunity. Today, BCLB lists 99 licensed bookmakers, more than before the campaign.
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In an interview at its Nairobi headquarters, BCLB Director Peter Mbuji told me that the number of Kenyans betting and total trading volumes are lower today than they were in 2019, although he declined to share any numbers. Mbuji attributes this decline to tighter regulations and a growing awareness that sports betting is "not as rosy" as many thought. But others say the number cuts may be a temporary stunt caused by the sudden turnaround in 2019 and the pandemic, which has strained household finances and disrupted world soccer leagues for months. Data from Safaricom, which controls more than 99% of Kenya's mobile money market, shows that M-Pesa users' transactions with betting sites amounted to $737 million in the six months to September 2021, up from $436 million in the same period. period from 2020. Meanwhile, there are new African markets to explore. Karen Nringa, who leads marketing in Kenya for Betway, a global company with operations in seven African countries, says the company is focusing on many other countries. Chalkline Sports, which helps bookmakers acquire and retain customers, described the continent's "untapped potential" in online gaming as "unbelievable."
Brian Otieno
Some hope that the same kinds of technologies that have enabled this industry to thrive can also mitigate the damage they can cause. Last year, for example, Bwire and fellow activist Weldon Koros partnered with British company Gamban to offer an app that would allow addicts to block access to all gambling sites on their devices. Use of the program, which cannot be uninstalled, has been modest so far, but Bwire says it has helped some people "reduce temptations". Bwire and Koros have also had some success lobbying universities to ban betting sites on their networks: if students had to pay for data, he thinks, they might spend less time on their devices. The men applaud Safaricom's 2021 launch of a "mobile smart payment system" for student loans, which prevents tuition fees from being diverted to betting. But Bwire would like to see the company do more, including placing tighter limits on text-based ads and overdraft facilities that many bookmakers use to bet on credit, as well as loans from third-party apps. (A spokesperson for Safaricom, which earned $37 million in betting-related fees in fiscal 2021, did not respond to multiple requests for comment.)
Kirwa says that betting has become the core of his identity, and it is difficult for him to understand life without it.
New digital products can influence some bettors towards alternative businesses. Kevin Kejera, a third-year student at Kenyatta University, says he tried sports betting after high school but gave up after realizing the odds had been rigged against him. These days, he's switched to forex trading: the FXPesa app that lets him use mobile money to do just that, launched in 2019, and another app followed. Many of his friends also use the apps to trade forex, cryptocurrency or foreign stocks - options that were not available even a few years ago. Kejira, who aspires to be the "Warren Buffett of Kenya," suspects that increased awareness of these products will continue to lure some educated Kenyans out of the bet, though likely not the masses. "It's very hard to convince someone who hasn't gone to college about the markets," he says.
Kirwa, for his part, is unlikely to give up his habit. One evening in Eldoret, I joined him in his red Toyota Vitz, a hatchback he had outfitted with tinted windows and electric blue interior lighting. The sound of the Afrobeats coming off the stereo would have been less if he still had an outdated sound system, he lamented, but he sold it to pay off a loan he used to place a bet. Despite Kirwa's poor record in the years since his big win, he says he has no plans to quit. The bet has become the core of his identity, he says, and it's hard for him to understand life without it. Plus it is very convenient. His smartphone and M-Pesa wallet will always be in his pocket - and there's always a chance that luck is on his side again.
Jonathan W. Rosen is an African writer and journalist.
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